Vegas On To Something With the Lines on Alabama-Mississippi State and FSU-Miami?

Last week when I saw that Texas was favored to beat West Virginia I thought the book makers in Sin City must be drinking some really good Kool Aid. Have they not watched these two teams play? West Virginia has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation and a pretty decent defense to go with it, Texas can is a struggling work in progress on offense with an okay defense. No way!

Well--we now know they were right (shame on me for doubting) which makes me wonder about a couple of games this weekend: Alabama-Mississippi State and FSU-Miami,

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As of Wednesday afternoon Alabama is favored by eight points over Mississippi State; more than a touchdown on the No. 1 team in the nation! How in the world can this be?

Offensively they are both very tough. The Bulldogs average around 50 yards more on the ground, but the Crimson Tide average about 20 more through the air. Mississippi State scores around five more points a game.

Defensively the edge has to go to Alabama (No. 4 overall, No. 3 against the run, and No. 2 in scoring). Mississippi State's gives up yards (No. 89 overall), but manages to keep guys out of the end zone (No. 16 in scoring).

The difference in scoring defense (around six points) is significant. Mississippi State does give up a lot of yards, but with the injuries the Tide have been hit with in the backfield chances are Alabama is not going to run nearly as well. Outside of Amari Cooper the passing game is not that impressive.

So where in the world do they get eight points for Alabama?

The Florida State-Miami spread is just as perplexing. FSU is only a two point favorite over the Hurricanes; a team riding a 25-game winning streak and the defending national champion is only favored by two over a three loss team? WTF?

If there is a knock on Florida State it is their reliance on the pass. Jameis Winston's interceptions have hurt of late, but the team has proven to be more than capable of making up slack. Miami's pass defense is tough (No. 10) and there defense has done well protecting its end zone (No. 25).

Those two things combined with Duke Johnson and the running game may keep this one interesting, but on paper there is no reason to think the Hurricanes have a chance unless they can capitalize on some FSU mistakes.

Is Vegas that sure Jameis Winston is going to throw a few picks or something?

My natural inclination is to laugh at the lines of this game. Yeah, these guys are professionals and study the teams much more than the average person, but still--Alabama by eight? Florida State by just two?



But they did nail the Texas-WVU game...

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